Warwickshire and its population
The county of Warwickshire is located in the West Midlands region. According to mid-2021 population figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of Warwickshire was 599,153. Based on recent growth rates, ONS estimates that the current population in 2023 has risen to around 623,000.
Warwickshire is at the heart of Britain’s transport network and several key strategic routes pass through the county. Warwickshire currently has a two-tier local authority system in place with an upper-tier county council and five lower-tier district and borough councils as follows:
- North Warwickshire
- Nuneaton and Bedworth
- Rugby
- Warwick
- Stratford-on-Avon
The population of Warwickshire is diverse, with a mix of urban and rural areas. In terms of demographics, the largest age group is those aged 45-64, followed by those aged 65 and over. There is a relatively low percentage of young people under the age of 16, which suggests that the population is ageing. The population is predominantly White British, with ethnic minorities making up a smaller proportion of the population.
It is estimated that the population in Warwickshire will continue to grow over the coming years. The current projected growth rate suggests that the population of Warwickshire will reach around 677,000 by 2041.
| Total number | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 18 to 64, projected to 2040 | 341,000 | 351,400 | 359,000 | 366,200 | 374,400 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a mental health problem, projected to 2040 | 24,560 | 25,325 | 25,841 | 26,369 | 26,948 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a moderate or severe learning difficulty, projected to 2040 | 1,887 | 1,950 | 2,009 | 2,061 | 2,113 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a moderate personal care disability, by age, projected to 2040 | 13,854 | 14,414 | 14,451 | 14,614 | 14,756 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a serious personal care disability, by age. projected to 2040 | 3,045 | 3,150 | 3,172 | 3,183 | 3,260 |
Source: Projecting Adults Needs and Service Information (PANSI)
Personal care disability encompasses challenges related to essential activities such as getting in and out of bed, moving in and out of a chair, dressing, personal hygiene, feeding, and toilet use.
The table above outlines anticipated changes in the population aged 18 to 64 and various related health indicators up to the year 2040. The total population in this age group is expected to steadily increase from 341,000 in 2020 to 374,400 in 2040. Additionally, the number of individuals aged 18-64 with a learning disability is expected to increase from 8,446 in 2020 to 9,178 in 2040, with individuals with moderate or severe learning disabilities is expected to increase from 1,887 in 2020 to 2,113 in 2040.
Furthermore, projections indicate varying trends in personal care disabilities. The number of individuals with moderate personal care disabilities is projected to remain relatively stable, with a minor increase from 13,854 in 2020 to 14,756 in 2040. Conversely, those with serious personal care disabilities are expected to experience a gradual increase from 3,045 in 2020 to 3,260 in 2040. These projections highlight the evolving landscape of healthcare needs within the adult population and emphasise the importance of proactive planning and resource allocation in the years ahead.
Mental health
Of significant concern is the projected prevalence of mental health problems, which is expected to rise from 24,560 individuals in 2020 to 26,948 individuals by 2040. Additionally, the number of individuals aged 18 to 64 with moderate or severe learning disabilities is expected to increase from 1,887 in 2020 to 2,113 in 2040.
The Coventry and Warwickshire Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) reveals the profound impact of poor mental health in the region, emphasising pervasive challenges faced by local services. In specific demographics, accessing mental health services becomes difficult, requiring critical efforts to address barriers and ensure broader resource utilisation. Anticipated increases in mental health issues pose substantial challenges to the health system, emphasising the need for preventive strategies. The aftermath of the pandemic has intensified mental health concerns, particularly among young people and women. Recognising this, integrating mental health into recovery plans is crucial, underscored by national and local documents, including The Five Year Forward View for Mental Health and the NHS Long Term Plan, and the National Suicide Prevention Strategy.
Warwickshire’s overall health outcomes
Warwickshire’s overall health outcomes are above the national average; however, these outcomes vary among its residents. In more deprived regions, individuals experience shorter lifespans and spend a substantial portion of their lives in poor health. Contrarily, in less deprived areas of the county, males anticipate living over nine years longer, while females expect to live five years longer than their counterparts in the more deprived regions.
Notably, people are facing an extended duration of poor health in their extended lives, with men enduring 17.6 years and women 19.3 years in suboptimal health. These discrepancies in health outcomes are avoidable and closely tied to living and work conditions, alongside lifestyle choices encompassing smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition, and physical activity.
While many individuals continue to enjoy a healthy, active, and independent lifestyle in their later years, some face an escalating risk of frailty, falls, long-term medical conditions, dementia, terminal illnesses, dependency, and disability, as they age. Furthermore, individuals from certain ethnic minority groups and lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to experience inequalities in ageing well.
Diversity of population
| Ethnic group | Warwickshire | West Midlands | Adult social care 2022/23 services users | Disability care home service users 2022/23 | Disability care home service users 2022/23 (accounting for undeclared) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian, Asian British, or Asian Welsh (%) | 6.3 | 13.3 | 3 | 3 | 3.3 |
| Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African (%) | 1.3 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Mixed or multiple ethnic groups (%) | 2.3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| White (%) | 89.1 | 77 | 85.5 | 84.2 | 93.4 |
| Other ethnic group (%) | 1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1 |
| Undeclared (%) | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 0 |
Source: ONS, Census 2011
Warwickshire is less diverse than the West Midlands region and England as a whole. The majority of the population in Warwickshire identifies as White, accounting for 89.1% of the population.
Our care records systems show that our disabilities care home population appears to have a different ethnic composition compared with the West Midlands. However, the ethnicity of 10% of our residents in care homes is undeclared. Because of this, work needs to be undertaken in this area to understand more accurately what the real diversity of care is in Warwickshire, and we will seek to work with providers and local communities to help ensure the care provided meets the specific needs of the wider community.
For additional information please use the links provided below.
Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information (PANSI), Oxford Brookes University Institute of Public Health (other data sources are available) - PANSI