Market Position Statement for domiciliary care - February 2024

The county of Warwickshire is located in the West Midlands region. According to mid-2021 population figures published by the ONS, the population of Warwickshire was 599,153. Based on recent growth rates, it is estimated that the current population in 2023 has risen to around 623,000.

Warwickshire is at the heart of Britain’s transport network and several key strategic routes pass through the county. Warwickshire currently has a two-tier local authority system in place with an upper-tier county council and five lower-tier district and borough councils as follows:

• North Warwickshire
• Nuneaton and Bedworth
• Rugby
• Warwick
• Stratford-on-Avon

The population of Warwickshire is diverse, with a mix of urban and rural areas. In terms of demographics, the largest age group is those aged 45-64, followed by those aged 65 and over. There is a relatively low percentage of young people under the age of 16, which suggests that the population is ageing. The population is predominantly White British, with ethnic minorities making up a smaller proportion of the population.

It is estimated that the population in Warwickshire will continue to grow over the coming years. The current projected growth rate suggests that the population of Warwickshire will reach around 677,000 by 2041.

In 2016, we undertook a comprehensive re-tendering of the Care at Home contract. This involved a transformation of how we commissioned domiciliary care services. Collaborating closely with providers, we introduced a geographic zone model, segmenting the service provision into eight distinct zones. Within these zones, multiple contracted providers were allocated a share of service packages. They now collaborate with the central brokerage function to effectively manage support demands. Notably, we acknowledged the variations between rural and urban areas, a factor that significantly influenced the planning of the zones and the associated hourly rates. This strategic approach has been pivotal in optimising our services.

Please find below a summary of the zones by location.

Population aged 65 and over, projections to 2040, in Warwickshire

According to the latest data, the population aged 65 and over in Warwickshire is estimated to be around 145,50 in 2030. In terms of future projections, it is expected that the population aged 65 and over in Warwickshire will continue to grow, with estimates suggesting that by 2035 it will reach approximately 157,600, an increase of over 29% from the 2020 figure.

The number of people living with dementia in Warwickshire is expected to increase in the coming years, due to a combination of factors such as an ageing population and increasing awareness and diagnosis of the disease. According to the Alzheimer’s Society, there were approximately 8,760 people living with dementia in Warwickshire in 2020. This number is expected to rise to around 11,227 by 2030, and to almost 13,721 by 2040, based on current trends.

Warwickshire’s overall health outcomes are above the national average; however, these outcomes vary among its residents. In more deprived regions, individuals experience shorter lifespans and spend a substantial portion of their lives in poor health. Contrarily, in less deprived areas of the county, males anticipate living over nine years longer, while females expect to live five years longer than their counterparts in the more deprived regions.

Notably, people are facing an extended duration of poor health in their extended lives, with men enduring 17.6 years and women 19.3 years in suboptimal health. These discrepancies in health outcomes are avoidable and closely tied to living and work conditions, alongside lifestyle choices encompassing smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition, and physical activity.

In the year 2021, the leading causes of death for individuals aged 65 and above in Warwickshire were cancer, followed by ischaemic heart disease among men, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease among women. COVID-19 claimed the third position for both sexes. Importantly, many of these conditions offer opportunities for prevention and early intervention.

While numerous individuals continue to enjoy a healthy, active, and independent lifestyle in their later years, some face an escalating risk of frailty, long-term medical conditions, dementia, terminal illnesses, dependency, and disability, including falls, as they age. Furthermore, individuals from certain ethnic minority groups and lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to experience inequalities in aging well.

Diversity

Warwickshire is less diverse than the West Midlands region and England as a whole. The majority of the population in Warwickshire identifies as White, accounting for 89.1% of the population.

Our care records systems show that our older domiciliary care population appears to have a different ethnic composition compared with the wider UK population. However, the ethnicity of 10% of our domiciliary care service users is undeclared. Because of this, work needs to be undertaken in this area to understand more accurately what the real diversity of care is in Warwickshire, and we will seek to work with providers to help ensure the care provided meets the specific needs of the wider community.

For additional information please use the links provided. Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI), Oxford Brookes University Institute of Public Health (other data sources are available).