Warwickshire and its population
The county of Warwickshire is located in the West Midlands region. According to mid-2021 population figures published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the population of Warwickshire was 599,153. Based on recent growth rates, ONS estimates that the current population in 2023 has risen to around 623,000.
Warwickshire is at the heart of Britain’s transport network and several key strategic routes pass through the county. Warwickshire currently has a two-tier local authority system in place with an upper-tier county council and five lower-tier district and borough councils as follows:
- North Warwickshire
- Nuneaton and Bedworth
- Rugby
- Warwick
- Stratford-on-Avon
The population of Warwickshire is diverse, with a mix of urban and rural areas. In terms of demographics, the largest age group is those aged 45-64, followed by those aged 65 and over. There is a relatively low percentage of young people under the age of 16, which suggests that the population is ageing. The population is predominantly White British, with ethnic minorities making up a smaller proportion of the population.
It is estimated that the population in Warwickshire will continue to grow over the coming years. The current projected growth rate suggests that the population of Warwickshire will reach around 677,000 by 2041.
| Total number | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 65 and over, projected to 2040 | 122,000 | 131,900 | 145,500 | 157,600 | 165,500 |
| Population aged 65 and over predicted to have dementia by age and gender, projected to 2040 | 8,760 | 9,907 | 11,227 | 12,549 | 13,721 |
Source: Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI)
According to the latest data, the population aged 65 and over in Warwickshire is estimated to be around 145,50 in 2030. In terms of future projections, it is expected that the population aged 65 and over in Warwickshire will continue to grow, with estimates suggesting that by 2035 it will reach approximately 157,600, an increase of over 29% from the 2020 figure.
The number of people living with dementia in Warwickshire is expected to increase in the coming years, due to a combination of factors such as an ageing population and increasing awareness and diagnosis of the disease. According to the Alzheimer’s Society, there were approximately 8,760 people living with dementia in Warwickshire in 2020. This number is expected to rise to around 11,227 by 2030, and to almost 13,721 by 2040, based on current trends.
| Total number | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population aged 18 to 64, projected to 2040 | 341,000 | 351,400 | 359,000 | 366,200 | 374,400 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a mental health problem, projected to 2040 | 24,560 | 25,325 | 25,841 | 26,369 | 26,948 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a moderate or severe learning difficulty, projected to 2040 | 1,887 | 1,950 | 2,009 | 2,061 | 2,113 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a moderate personal care disability, by age, projected to 2040 | 13,854 | 14,414 | 14,451 | 14,614 | 14,756 |
| People aged 18 to 64 predicted to have a serious personal care disability, by age. projected to 2040 | 3,045 | 3,150 | 3,172 | 3,183 | 3,260 |
Source: Projecting Adults Needs and Service Information (PANSI)
Personal care disability encompasses challenges related to essential activities such as getting in and out of bed, moving in and out of a chair, dressing, personal hygiene, feeding, and toilet use.
The table above outlines anticipated changes in the population aged 18 to 64 and various related health indicators up to the year 2040. The total population in this age group is expected to steadily increase from 341,000 in 2020 to 374,400 in 2040.
Of significant concern is the projected prevalence of mental health problems, which is expected to rise from 24,560 individuals in 2020 to 26,948 individuals by 2040. Additionally, the number of individuals aged 18 to 64 with moderate or severe learning disabilities is expected to increase from 1,887 in 2020 to 2,113 in 2040.
Furthermore, projections indicate varying trends in personal care disabilities. The number of individuals with moderate personal care disabilities is projected to remain relatively stable, with a minor increase from 13,854 in 2020 to 14,756 in 2040. Conversely, those with serious personal care disabilities are expected to experience a gradual increase from 3,045 in 2020 to 3,260 in 2040.
These projections highlight the evolving landscape of healthcare needs within the adult population and emphasise the importance of proactive planning and resource allocation in the years ahead.
Warwickshire’s overall health outcomes are above the national average; however, these outcomes vary among its residents. In more deprived regions, individuals experience shorter lifespans and spend a substantial portion of their lives in poor health. Contrarily, in less deprived areas of the county, males anticipate living over nine years longer, while females expect to live five years longer than their counterparts in the more deprived regions.
Notably, people are facing an extended duration of poor health in their extended lives, with men enduring 17.6 years and women 19.3 years in suboptimal health. These discrepancies in health outcomes are avoidable and closely tied to living and work conditions, alongside lifestyle choices encompassing smoking, alcohol consumption, nutrition, and physical activity.
In the year 2021, the leading causes of death for individuals aged 65 and above in Warwickshire were cancer, followed by ischaemic heart disease among men, and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease among women. COVID-19 claimed the third position for both sexes. Importantly, many of these conditions offer opportunities for prevention and early intervention.
While numerous individuals continue to enjoy a healthy, active, and independent lifestyle in their later years, some face an escalating risk of frailty, longterm medical conditions, dementia, terminal illnesses, dependency, and disability, including falls, as they age. Furthermore, individuals from certain ethnic minority groups and lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to experience inequalities in aging well.
Diversity
| Ethnic group | Warwickshire | West Midlands | Adult social care 2022/23 services users | Adult social care 2022/23 service users (removing undeclared) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian, Asian British, or Asian Welsh (%) | 6.3 | 13.3 | 3 | 3.3 |
| Black, Black British, Black Welsh, Caribbean or African (%) | 1.3 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Mixed or multiple ethnic groups (%) | 2.3 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| White (%) | 89.1 | 77 | 85.5 | 94.9 |
| Other ethnic group (%) | 1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Undeclared (%) | 0 | 0 | 9.9 | 0.5 |
Warwickshire is less diverse than the West Midlands region and England as a whole. The majority of the population in Warwickshire identifies as White, accounting for 89.1% of the population.
Our care records systems show that our older people HwC population appears to have a different ethnic composition compared with the wider UK population. However, the ethnicity of 10% of our residents in HwC is undeclared. Because of this, work needs to be undertaken in this area to understand more accurately what the real diversity of care is in Warwickshire, and we will seek to work with providers to help ensure the care provided meets the specific needs of the wider community.
For additional information please use the links provided.
Projecting Older People Population Information System (POPPI), Oxford Brookes University Institute of Public Health (other data sources are available).